⚽ PRE-MATCH PREDICTOR

Goals Scored/Game — Average goals the team scores per match over last 5 games. Find on Sofascore, FBref, or Soccerway.
Goals Conceded/Game — Average goals allowed per match. Lower = stronger defence.
League Avg Goals/Game — Average total goals per match in that league. EPL ≈ 2.7, La Liga ≈ 2.5, NPFL ≈ 2.2.
Venue Adjustment — Home Advantage adds ~10% boost. Use Strong Home Record for teams like Man City, Real Madrid at home.

The model uses Poisson Distribution — a mathematical formula that converts average goal rates into exact scoreline probabilities. It's the same method used by professional bookmakers.

📊 READING THE HEATMAP

Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Brighter green = more likely.
Rows = Home goals. Columns = Away goals.
The top 5 most probable scores are listed below with fair odds — compare these with bookmaker prices to find value.

🎯 VALUE SCANNER

Run Pre-Match Predictor first, then enter bookmaker odds for each scoreline.
Edge % — Positive means the bookmaker is underpricing that score. The bigger the edge, the better the value.
EV — Expected profit per unit staked. +0.15 = 15% return per bet long-term.
⚠ Always compare odds across multiple bookmakers before placing. One bookmaker may be an outlier.

🔴 LIVE RECALCULATOR

Use this during a live match to update probabilities based on current score and time.
Home/Away xG — Copy from the Pre-Match Predictor results, or enter from Sofascore's live xG tracker.
Minute — Current match minute. The model scales remaining expected goals by time left.
Comeback Probability — Chance the losing team equalises or wins from current position. Use this to spot overreacted live odds.

⚠ CIPHER SCORE uses Poisson Distribution modelling. Results depend on the accuracy of stats entered. Always use recent form data (last 5–10 matches). Football is unpredictable — no model guarantees outcomes. Bet responsibly.