CIPHER DAILY helps you find value bets by comparing your statistical model against the bookmaker's implied probability. It tells you when the odds are in your favour — and when to walk away.
🎾 TENNIS INPUTS
Serve Win % — How often a player wins their service games. Find this on ATP/WTA stats pages or flashscore.com. Typical range: 60–75%.
Return Win % — How often they win when returning. Typical range: 30–45%. Higher = better returner.
Surface — Clay slows the game (helps returners), Grass speeds it up (helps servers). Always match the actual surface.
Format — Best of 3 (most ATP/WTA) or Best of 5 (Grand Slams). Bo5 reduces variance, favourites win more often.
🏀 BASKETBALL INPUTS
Offensive Rating — Points scored per 100 possessions. Find on basketball-reference.com or NBA.com. Typical NBA range: 105–120.
Defensive Rating — Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower = better defence.
Home Court — Home teams historically win ~60% of games. Always factor this in.
📊 READING THE RESULT
MODEL PROB — What our model thinks the real win probability is.
EDGE % — How much better your odds are vs the bookie. Positive = value bet. Negative = bookie has the edge.
EV — Expected Value per unit staked. +0.05 means you gain 5 units per 100 staked long-term.
BET IT — Edge >5% and positive EV. Strong signal.
MARGINAL — Small positive edge. Only bet if your stats are solid.
SKIP — No edge. The bookie's price is fair or against you. Don't force it.
⚠ This tool is a mathematical model — not a crystal ball. Results depend on the quality of stats you enter. Always use recent form data (last 10–15 matches). Bet responsibly.